This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery … the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery – errors made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation …, there is little evidence that an underestimate of the impact of fiscal consolidation contributed significantly to forecast …

forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions … forecast methodology aims at addressing these challenges. The algorithm is said to be “adaptive” insofar as it adapts to the … the algorithm in forecasting GDP growth 3- to 12-months ahead is assessed through simulations in pseudo-real-time for six …

This report updates and extends earlier assessments of quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations of consumers … defining concrete aggregate indicators of consumers' quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations on the basis of the … Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. Confirming earlier findings, consumers' quantitative estimates of …

curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s target, although some experimentation …-shooting of inflation has led to some de-anchoring of expectations from the target, especially in the euro area. For most OECD …A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority …