Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as … the forecast itself. Following Cornec (2010), a method to assess the uncertainty around the indicator models used at OECD … to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member countries is developed, using quantile regressions to construct a …

forecast methodology aims at addressing these challenges. The algorithm is said to be “adaptive” insofar as it adapts to the …

the bootstrapping technique, allow the ex ante probability of, for example, a negative GDP growth forecast for the current …

, there is little evidence that an underestimate of the impact of fiscal consolidation contributed significantly to forecast …