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Using probit models of downturn risk to calibrate GDP fan charts for New Zealand
Kergozou, Nikki; Turner, David - 2019
Macroeconomic forecasters typically forecast fewer recessions than the number experienced, which means economic growth tends to be over-predicted on average. Consequently, forecast errors are not normally distributed, making it difficult to convey the uncertainty and risks based on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011998489
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Limits to government debt sustainability
Fournier, Jean-Marc; Fall, Falilou - 2015
The recent euro area sovereign debt crisis has shown the importance of market reactions for the sustainability of debt. The objective of this paper is to calculate endogenous government debt limits given the markets assessment of the probability to default. The estimated primary balance reaction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399483
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Macroeconomic uncertainties, prudent debt targets and fiscal rules
Fall, Falilou; Fournier, Jean-Marc - 2015
The sharp rise in debt experienced by most OECD countries raises questions about the prudent debt level countries should target. It also raises questions about the fiscal frameworks needed to reach them and to accommodate cyclical fluctuations along the path towards a prudent debt target. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399529
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The effect of government debt, external debt and their interaction on OECD interest rates
Turner, David; Spinelli, Francesca - 2013
position in determining domestic interest rates and, relatedly, its vulnerability to a crisis. This paper extends the panel … estimation of OECD countries described in Turner and Spinelli (2012) to investigate the effect of external debt and its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010231409
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Effects of fiscal policy on private consumption
Arola, Mika - 1996
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000964576
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Domácnosti v ČR: příjmy, spotřeba, úspory a dluhy v letech 1993 až 2012
2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009766502
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The discretionary fiscal effort : an assessment of fiscal policy and its output effect
Carnot, Nicolas; Castro, Francisco de - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010516733
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Marktverhalten, Verschuldung und Überschuldung privater Haushalte in den neuen Bundesländern : Gutachten
Korczak, Dieter - 1997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013360680
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How effective are automatic fiscal stabilisers in the OECD countries?
Maravalle, Alessandro; Rawdanowicz, Łukasz - 2020
This paper proposes an approach to assess the extent of automatic fiscal stabilisation of aggregate household … disposable income after a specific shock. The approach is based on the national account identity of household disposable income … household market income, automatic stabilisers in 23 OECD countries are found to offset on average around 60% of the shock on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420959
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A simple fiscal stress testing model : case studies of Austrian, Czech and German economies
Kamenik, Ondra; Tuma, Zdenek; Vávra, David; Smidova, Zuzana - 2013
This paper develops a simple model-based framework for stress testing fiscal consolidation strategies under different scenarios of future shocks. A baseline scenario assuming a gradual debt consolidation is presented and by assuming different future developments (e.g. lower potential growth)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009769655