not the case. Although unemployment is low, the labor market is not 'tight'. On the contrary, we show that what matters …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

its successor Understanding Society. We find that the unemployment rate on leaving full-time education has large impacts …

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between the speed of buildup of private debt (household and … basis of how quickly their private debt builds up. In addition to output recessions, we look at consumption and investment … corporate debt is especially damaging for emerging markets during financial recessions. A higher ratio of debt to gross domestic …