There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline … in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely …

demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial … production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. -- oil …

-term components in terms of oil market volatility. The results show that the global demand shock is the only one factor found to be … positive and significantly increasing long- or short-term oil volatility in the full sample. This is consistent with a classic …-term oil volatility during the post-2004 period. The results also suggest the existence of asymmetric impacts on the short …