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Konjunktur in der EWU zieht an
Weinert, Günter; Wohlers, Eckhardt; Brück, Christiane; … - 1999
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011293247
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Business cycle dynamics and firm heterogeneity : evidence for Austria using survey data
Bierbaumer-Polly, Jürgen; Hölzl, Werner - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411732
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Beyond the business climate : regular and supplementary questions in the ifo Business survey
Demmelhuber, Katrin; Sauer, Stefan; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2022
In the monthly ifo Business Survey around 9,000 German companies answer questions about their current business situation, expectations and plans for the near future as well as on other business variables. This paper provides an overview of all regular questions (monthly, quarterly, bi-annually,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170991
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The Ifo business cycle clock : circular correlation with the real GDP
Abberger, Klaus; Nierhaus, Wolfgang - 2010
The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008697108
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How strongly did the 2007/08 oil price hike contribute to the subsequent recession?
Carstensen, Kai; Elstner, Steffen; Paula, Georg - 2011
firm level analysis for which we exploit a unique microeconomic data set for Germany. Inspired by this finding, we … subsequent recession in Germany even though it was by far not the main driver. -- oil price shock ; VAR model ; micro data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009010510
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In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany
Bandholz, Harm; Funke, Michael - 2001
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400394
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Predicting recessions in Germany with boosted regression trees
Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2015 - First version: October 2015
We use a machine-learning approach known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to reexamine the usefulness of selected leading indicators for predicting recessions. We estimate the BRT approach on German data and study the relative importance of the indicators and their marginal effects on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381289
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Uncertainty and economic activity : evidence from business survey data
Bachmann, Ruediger; Elstner, Steffen; Sims, Eric R. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009775173
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Auf schwankendem Grund
Hohlfeld, Peter; Horn, Gustav A.; Lindner, Fabian; … - 2012
Die Perspektiven für die deutsche Konjunktur haben sich eingetrübt. Für den Prognosezeitraum ist nur eine schwache … einhergehend eine geringe Expansion der Investitionen in Deutschland dämpfen das Wachstum. Für das Jahr 2012 wird das Wachstum des … euro area countries and a less dynamic world economy growth reduce Germany's growth rate directly and indirectly by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009616467
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Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods
Pirschel, Inske; Wolters, Maik H. - 2014
We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010357899