practice using data from Sweden. We compare the forecast performance of BVAR and DSGE models with the Riksbank's official, more …- and judgment based forecasts, and show that the combined forecast performs well out-of-sample. In addition, we show the …

-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …

Zeitpunkten werden präsentiert und diskutiert. -- Mehrländermodell ; Prognose ; Bayesianische Ökonometrie …

We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany … indicators. We show that the best set of predictors, within and between categories, changes over time and depends on the forecast …