The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and...

This paper studies the endogenous emergence of political regimes, in particular democracy, oligarchy and mass dictatorship, in societies in which productive resources are distributed unequally and institutions do not ensure political commitments. The political regime is shown to depend on...

In Tunesien, Ägypten und Libyen wurden 2011 nach Massenprotesten und blutigen Auseinandersetzungen die langjährigen Machthaber Ben Ali, Mubarak und Qaddafi gestürzt. Alle drei Staaten befinden sich seither in einem noch nicht abgeschlossenen Transformationsprozess. Diese Umbruchphase ist...

This paper studies the endogenous emergence of political regimes, in particular democracy, oligarchy and mass dictatorship, in societies in which productive resources are distributed unequally and institutions do not ensure political commitments. The political regime is shown to depend on...

This new DIIS Working Paper examines the role of the mild stimulant khat in the economic and political transformation of the independent, yet internationally unrecognized Republic of Somaliland. Rather than seeing khat as a hindrance for nation-state formation and as a developmental problem, the...