This paper compares the performance of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price-level path targeting (PLPT) rules to stabilize the macroeconomy, in response to a series of shocks, similar to those seen in Canada and the United States over the 1983 to 2004 period. The analysis is conducted in a...

We examine the relative ability of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price level targeting (PLT) monetary policy rules to minimize both inflation variability and business cycle fluctuations in Canada for shocks that have important consequences for global commodity prices. We find that...

In macroeconomic models, the level of price dispersion - which is typically approximated through its relationship with inflation - is a central determinant of welfare, the cost of business cycles, the optimal rate of inflation, and the tradeoff between inflation and output stability. While the...

In this paper, we examine the extent to which monetary policy should respond to movements in sectoral inflation rates. To do this we construct a Generalised Taylor model that takes specific account of the sectoral make-up of the consumer price index (CPI). We calibrate the model for each sector...

DSGE models based on New Keynesian principles, which have been extended to allow for banking, the zero lower bound on interest rates (ZLB), and varying price duration, can account well for recent macroeconomic behavior across a variety of economies. These models Önd that active Öscal policy...

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...

Dieser Beitrag möchte einen Impuls zur stärkeren Berücksichtigung von Genderaspekten in makroökonomischen Modellen geben. Am Beispiel der Philipps-Kurve geht es um die Frage, ob sich das Erwerbsverhalten von Frauen und Männern so stark voneinander unterscheidet, dass sich dies im Verlauf...

In this paper we model monthly UK inflation and find that there is some small but significant autocorrelation, particularly at 12 months. We find that this autocorrelation in monthly inflation leads to significant persistence in the headline annual inflation figure. A one-off shock to monthly...