Let i = 1, . . . , N index a simple random sample of units drawn from some large population. For each unit we observe the vector of regressors Xi and, for each of the N (N - 1) ordered pairs of units, an outcome Yij . The outcomes Yij and Ykl are independent if their indices are disjoint, but...

We investigate the information theoretic optimality properties of the score function of the predictive likelihood as a device to update parameters in observation driven time-varying parameter models. The results provide a new theoretical justification for the class of generalized autoregressive...