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Abreu and Brunnermeier (2003) have argued that bubbles are not suppressed by arbitrageurs because they fail to … with the alternative according to which bubbles persist due to the difficulty of agreeing on the end of bubbles. We present …. We find overwhelming evidence that the beginning of bubbles is much better constrained that their end. Our results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507794
After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agentbased financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595441
Inspired by the question of identifying the start time τ of financial bubbles, we address the calibration of time …. Applied to synthetic models of financial bubbles with a well-defined transition regime and to a number of financial time …-defined reasonable determinations of the starting times for major bubbles such as the bubbles ending with the 1987 Black-Monday, the 2008 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877499
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009006788
This paper investigates whether there are bubbles in stock prices. We do this using a previously studied structural … tandem with their fundamentals. We therefore find no evidence in favor of stock price bubbles in all the countries invested. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010349257
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001375817
dynamics of house prices in Denmark in order to identify emerging bubbles in due time. We develop a fundamentals-adjusted house … price index and apply the testing procedure of Phillips et al. (2015) to date-stamp house-price bubbles. The empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696535
Generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test procedure developed by Phillips, Shi, and Yu (Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011674010
Locally explosive behavior is observed in many economic and financial time series when bubbles are formed. We introduce … be used to predict the emergence, existence and burst of bubbles. We adopt a flexible observation driven model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928329
the dynamics of Bitcoin price during the analyzed time period. We explain this classification of long and short bubbles by … over this period. Then, a detailed analysis of the growing risks associated with the three long bubbles using the Log … bubbles and the four short bubbles that our time scale of analysis was able to resolve. Overall, our predictive scheme …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899669