Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant predictive power for GDP data revisions. A positive (negative) error in Okun's Law in real time implies that GDP will be later revised to show less (more) growth than initially...

This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts of the major OECD economies as well as the aggregate OECD. The degree of uncertainty – reflecting the overall spread of the fan chart – is based on past forecast errors, but the skew – reflecting...

Fan charts were pioneered by the Bank of England and Riksbank and provide a visually appealing means to convey the uncertainty surrounding a forecast. This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts by which the degree of uncertainty is based on past...

The German minimum wage was introduced in January 2015. This paper investigates the short-term macroeconomic impacts of its introduction. Therefore, an estimated VAR/VECM is used to perform forecasts that are interpreted as counterfactual to the introduction of the minimum wage and compared to...

The study looks at primary expenditure developments in the euro area, its three largest members and four "macro-imbalances" countries for the period 1999-2009. It compares actual expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on...

This paper uses a model of intergenerational accounting to simulate the intergenerational distribution of oil wealth in Venezuela. Venezuelan oil production does not seem to follow an optimal extraction path. Nevertheless, this is true if we do not consider what the government does with the...

This note shows that the Italian Mini BOTs proposed in 2019 bore the potential neither to become Italian legal tender nor to practically increase Italian government debt, but to practically cause a mere reduction in taxation and thence in government spending or transfers. Since the Eurozone...

This paper explores the impact of wartime military spending on postwar U.S. fiscal policy, with a particular focus on the "ratchet effect" in taxes and transfers. Through econometric analysis, we investigate how changes in defense spending during and after conflicts shape long-term federal...

Das Produktionspotential der Liechtensteiner Volkswirtschaft hat sich in den vergangenen 60 Jahren im internationalen Vergleich ausserordentlich dynamisch entwickelt. Die Beschäftigung zeigt sich dabei als wichtigster Wachstumstreiber. Die expansive Entwicklung blieb jedoch nicht ungebrochen....

Australia is experiencing its largest mining boom for more than a century and a half. This paper explores, from a national perspective, important economic differences that arise when a mining boom, such as the current one, is generated by export price increases (trading gains) rather than export...