We present a stylized framework which encompasses a variety of ""balance sheet approaches"" to currency crises that have been suggested in the literature, and analyze their policy implications. The common theme is that currency and maturity mismatches in private sector balance sheets constrain...

We present a framework that clarifies the financial role of the IMF, the rationale for conditionality, and the conditions under which IMF-induced moral hazard can arise. In the model, traditional conditionality commits country authorities to undertake crisis resolution efforts, facilitating the...

What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors” including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment...

After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a...

This paper describes the evolution of ideas to apply bankruptcy reorganization principles to sovereign debt crises. Our focus is on policy proposals between the late 1970s and Anne Krueger''s (2001) proposed ""Sovereign Debt-Restructuring Mechanism,"" with brief reference to the economics...

This paper examines the reaction of the bilateral Ch$/US$ exchange rate to monetary policy actions in Chile and the United States. The approach is to regress the change in the exchange rate following a policy announcement on changes in market interest rates in response to the same announcement....

We estimate ex post returns to emerging market debt by combining secondary-market prices with observed flows based on World Bank data. From 1970-2000, returns averaged 9 percent per annum, about the same as returns on a ten-year U.S. treasury bond. This reflects the combined effect of the 1980s...

Contrary to widespread expectation, debt renegotiations in the era of bond finance have generally been quick and involved little litigation. We present a model that rationalizes the initial fears and offers interpretations for why they did not materialize. When the exchange offer is sufficiently...

The presence of an “EMU premium” in German long rates is tested by examining the co-movement of German and other European yields, as well as the exchange rate of the private ECU, in reaction to EMU-related events. If German yields incorporate an “EMU premium” while other European...

This paper estimates bond-by-bond ""haircuts""-realized investor losses-in recent debt restructurings in Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina, and Uruguay. We consider both external and domestic retructurings. Haircuts are computed as the percentage difference between the present values...