This paper presents OVer, a framework designed to automatically analyze the behaviour of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols when subjected to a "skewed" oracle input. OVer firstly performs a symbolic analysis on the given contract and constructs a model of constraints. Then, the framework...

This paper assesses the vulnerability of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) economies to external crises. It shows that while the average LAC economy has made significant strides to reduce vulnerability to crises to its historical minimum, there is still considerable room for improvement,...

This paper explores the effect of inflation supply and demand shocks on government debt. It identifies the shocks using a sign-restricted Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with quarterly data. Estimations of dynamic panel regressions and local projections suggest that supply shocks...

This paper investigates how a country's economic complexity influences its sovereign yield spread with respect to the United States. Notably, a one-unit increase in the Economic Complexity Index is associated with a reduction of about 87 basis points in the 10-year yield spread. However, this...

We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the...

Using both the onset of the US-China trade war in 2018 and the most recent Russia-Ukraine war and associated trade tensions, we show a counterintuitive pattern in global trade. Namely, while the average firm trading with these nations significantly decreases their trade with these jurisdictions...

Financial markets play two roles with implications for the exchange rate: they accommodate risk sharing and act as a source of shocks. In prevailing theories, these roles are seen as mutually exclusive and individually face challenges in explaining exchange rate dynamics. However, we demonstrate...

We examine the repercussions of protectionist policies implemented in the United States since 2018 on the composition of workforce and career choices within the semiconductor industry. We find that the shift towards protectionism, aimed at reviving domestic manufacturing and employment,...

I propose a dynamic model of the reserve currency paradigm that centers on the liquidity demand for safe assets. In global recessions, the demand for the U.S. safe bond increases and raises its convenience yield, giving rise to a stronger dollar and a countercyclical seigniorage revenue. The...