We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...

We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...

In this paper we update our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) with data from the first quarter of 2021. UPI values have declined in recent quarters. At first glance this might come as a surprise, with the third Corona wave having less of an impact than the first one, even though the former...

News-based indicators are in vogue in economics. But they tend to be applied with little consideration for the properties of news itself. In this paper, we try to shed light on the nature of this type of data. Drawing from established findings in communication science and journalism studies we...

This paper deals with the problem of deriving consistent time-series from newspaper contentbased topic models. In the first part, we recapitulate a few our own failed attempts, in the second one, we show some results using a twin strategy, that we call prototyping and seeding. Given the...