Most countries commonly classified as "in transition" are still recognisably different from other countries with a similar income per capita in some respects: a larger share of their work force is in industry, they use more energy, they have a more extensive infrastructure and invest more in...

Financial globalisation has been associated with divergent current account patterns in emerging market economies. While countries in emerging Asia have been running sizeable current account surpluses, countries in emerging Europe have been facing large current account deficits. In this paper we...

We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants. Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis...