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The design of the euro area Quantitative Easing (QE) programme raises the question of whether insuficient liquidity in the bond markets will reduce the impact of the programme and lead to market volatility. While estimates suggests that scarcity of around €102 billion may arise over the life...
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In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting...
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eurozone. By utilizing a unique data set provided by the ECB Bank Lending Survey, we capture the "pure" credit supply effect on … banks reporting considerable tightening on loans leads to around a 7% increase in firms' bond issuance in the eurozone … too. Furthermore, the impact of bank credit tightening on firms' bond issuance is particularly observable in core eurozone …
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We augment a standard monetary DSGE model to include a banking sector and financial markets. We fit the model to Euro Area and US data. We find that agency problems in financial contracts, liquidity constraints facing banks and shocks that alter the perception of market risk and hit financial...
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This paper examines ways to summarize the maturity structure of public debts using a small number of parameters. We …) more accurately describes changes in debt maturity for these six countries and 2) gives a quite different interpretation of … historical debt maturity. Our work can be applied not just to analyze past debt movements, but - because parameter estimates are …
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The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only...
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