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The People's Republic of China's long-run growth through the lens of the export-led growth model

Felipe, Jesus; Lanzafame, Matteo - 2018

The People's Republic of China's (PRC) remarkable growth performance over the last 3 decades has been associated to very robust export growth, so much so that many refer to it as a clear example of export-led growth (ELG). Using the concept of the balance-of-payments equilibrium (BOPE) growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011896368

The People's Republic of China's potential growth rate : the long-run constraints

Felipe, Jesus; Lanzafame, Matteo; Zhuang, Juzhong - 2014

We estimate the People's Republic of China's (PRC's potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010463576

Why has the Philippines' growth performance improved? : from disappointment to promising success

Felipe, Jesus; Estrada, Gemma - 2018

This paper analyzes why the Philippines' growth performance has improved significantly in recent years. As in the … constant unemployment rate, through the notion of Harrod's natural growth rate and Okun's Law. Kalman filter estimation allows …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011817064

China's march to prosperity : reforms to avoid the middle-income trap

Koen, Vincent; Herd, Richard; Hill, Sam - 2013

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010231008

Labor productivity slowdown in the developed economies : another productivity puzzle?

Erber, Georg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Harms, Patrick - 2016

The paper addresses the topic of an overall long-term productivity slowdown in labor productivity for a panel of 25 developed countries. Besides studying individual long-term trends of single countries using filtering techniques we also test for multiple structural breakpoints in the long-term...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532779

Are long-run output growth rates falling?

Li, Mengheng; Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan - 2018

-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and a Heckman-type two-step estimation procedure that deals with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011823990

Tracking growth and the business cycle : a stochastic common cycle model for the Euro area

Azevedo, João Valle e; Koopman, Siem Jan; Rua, António - 2003

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334364

Zooming the ins and outs of the U.S. unemployment with a wavelet lens

Portugal, Pedro; Rua, António - 2018

To better understand unemployment dynamics it is key to assess the role played by job creation and job destruction. Although the U.S. case has been studied extensively, the importance of job finding and employment exit rates to unemployment variability remains unsettled. The aim of this paper is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869049

NAIRU estimates for Germany : new evidence on the inflation-unemployment trade-off

Kajuth, Florian - 2010

-space estimation ; identification through heteroskedasticity ; trend inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657146

RGAP: output gap estimation in R

Streicher, Sina - 2022

Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models … unobserved component models and offers frequentist as well as Bayesian estimation techniques. Additional functionalities include … preparation, model specification, and estimation processes using RGAP. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256541

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