Die vorliegende Bewertung der Treffgenauigkeit von Prognosen sowie von vorläufigen amtlichen Berechnungen zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Deutschland zeigt, dass frühe Prognosen nicht nur sehr ungenau sind, sondern auch systematisch zu optimistisch ausfallen. Die mehr als ein Jahr im...

A series of experiments was run in order to evaluate the usability of two different measurement approaches: ratings and ranks (pairwise comparisons). Respondents were asked to assess perceived characteristics (i.e. height and length) of different physical objects by using either a rating or a...

The analysis of job tasks has become a field of growing scientific activity in recent years. Information on such tasks has been used to analyze various research questions, especially regarding changes in the overall structure of the economy and their implications for persons and firms. Arguably...

This paper attempts to first evaluate the effects of underground economy on the sustainability of tax receipts, and then to search new approaches in tax policy. Underground economy reduces predictability in economic policy, decreases tax receipts, and encourages illegal activities. In Turkey,...

We introduce the conditional restricted Boltzmann machine as method to analyze brand-level market basket data of individual households. The conditional restricted Boltzmann machine includes marketing variables and household attributes as independent variables. To our knowledge this is the first...

Indicators of government activity must be carefully designed to be relevant, credible and accountable. Frustration with reform pressures suggests that measures of policy activity are not providing accurate information. In fact, indicators of product or labour market regulation fail to measure...

Eine neue Möglichkeit zur Schätzung fehlender regionaler Einkommensdaten bieten Satellitenbilder der Erde bei Nacht. Die grundlegende Idee ist, dass wirtschaftliche Aktivitäten, die in den Abendstunden statt finden, Licht benötigen bzw. emittieren. Aus der Lichtemission bei Nacht kann ein...

This paper offers an exhaustive analysis of the effectiveness of several models and methodologies that are commonly used to forecast financial failure: Linear, MDA, Logit, and artificial neural network. Our main aim is to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses, in terms of technical...

Im Juli 2007 wurden die Milchpreise in Deutschland um 7 Cent je Liter angehoben, und für andere Molkereiprodukte wurden drastische Steigerungen angekündigt. Inzwischen ist auch bei Brot und Backwaren sowie bei Fleisch von deutlichen Preiserhöhungen die Rede. Verschiedentlich wird bereits...

Urban pride is an individual and collective response to living in a given city. Unlike other emotions such as life satisfaction or happiness with which it is weakly positively correlated, pride involves stake holding; to be proud of something requires having an investment in its success...