In this paper the authors develop an innovative 21 sector computable general equilibrium model of Armenia to assess the impact on Armenia of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU, as well as further regional or multilateral trade policy commitments. They find that a...

This article aims to analyze how the financial crisis that bursted in the mid-2008 led to a global and regional drop in trade flows. It starts from a comparison of the Great Depression shock to what happened during the Great Recession. Based on the similarities and differences found in the...

Auch in der Corona-Krise schwelen internationale Handelskonflikte weiter. So verschärfte die US-Regierung Mitte Mai 2020, mitten in der Corona-Krise, noch einmal die Exportbeschränkungen für Zulieferer des chinesischen Telekommunikationsausrüsters Huawei. Angesichts des dramatischen...

Overall, decoupling from certain countries may be both politically necessary and economically feasible, at least in the long run. However, a general shift of production back to Europe would be accompanied by significant losses in real income.

This paper draws on a general equilibrium poisson pseudo maximum likelihood model augmented by a dynamic capital accumulation to estimate the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on intra-African trade flows. The empirical results show that the AfCFTA could raise...

The authors review current developments in international trade and its prospects for the future arguing that despite the recent slowdown, trade remains an important driver of economic growth and development. Scepticism towards further trade opening needs to be addressed, notably via appropriate...

In der EU-Handels- und Investitionspolitik gibt es viele Baustellen. Um die bestehenden und geplanten Freihandelsabkommen beurteilen zu können, werden die einzelnen Effekte detailliert aufgezeigt. Die Wirkungen der europäischen Handelspolitik sowie des neuen Protektionismus der USA werden...

Economic studies on trade liberalization typically highlight positive expected effects. This paper discusses those issues which are frequently neglected, but are nevertheless important for policy-makers. These are macroeconomic adjustment costs and social costs of regulatory change. Our...

With the implementation of the Russian import ban as a countermeasure to the EU sanctions in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, trade relations between the EU and Russia reached their lowest level in 2014. In this paper, we model several trade policy scenarios and assess their effects on...

Countries increasingly form alliances to collectively impose sanctions. However, the resulting impact of such coordination remains unclear. Analyzing the 2014 wave of sanctions against Russia over 400,000 simulations with a quantitative trade model, this report demonstrates that multilateral...