This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using...

We study the Beaudry and Portier (2006)-hypothesis of delayed-technology diffusion and news-driven business cycles. For German data on TFP and stock prices we find qualitatively similar empirical evidence. Quantitatively, however, an impulse response analysis suggests that a substantial part of...

This paper examines the degree of trade integration and business cycle synchronisation between eight Balkan countries and the Euro area over the period 2000:1-2011:4. The main findings are that Slovenia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia exhibit a high level of openness relative to...

Die deutsche Industrie hat den Produktionsrückgang vom Jahresende 2012 in den ersten neun Monaten des laufenden Jahres fast wieder wettgemacht. Das Vorjahresniveau wird sie im Gesamtjahr 2013 dennoch knapp verfehlen, um voraussichtlich rund 0,5 Prozent. Sollte der Aufschwung im Euroraum im...

Using CPS data from 1979-2009 we examine how cyclical downturns and industry-specific demand shocks affect wage differentials between white non-Hispanic men and women, Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites, and African-Americans and non-Hispanic whites. Women's relative earnings are harmed by...

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...

We present an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of stock market bubbles and business cycles using Bayesian methods. Bubbles emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism supported by self-fulfilling beliefs. We identify a sentiment shock that drives the movements of...

More debt forgiveness directly benefits households but indirectly makes credit more expensive. How does aggregate risk affect this trade-off? In a calibrated general equilibrium life-cycle model, aggregate risk reduces the welfare benefit of making default very costly when the costs are borne by...

Fast alle Branchen der deutschen Industrie haben in diesem Jahr kräftig expandiert. Die Produktion im produzierenden Gewerbe ohne Baugewerbe wird im Jahresdurchschnitt um knapp neun Prozent höher sein als 2009. Die schnelle und kräftige Erholung beruht auch darauf, dass Deutschland im...