The aim of this paper is to identify the different shocks that could affect the current account in the argentine case, such as the terms of trade (the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect- HLM), supply shocks (productivity), demand shocks (real exchange rate and public consumption /current GDP) and...

This paper investigates the relationship between demographics and the current account. We analyze the impact of recent demographic changes and provide a forecast of its future impact. Overall, we find a strong and robust, non-linear demographic effect. In particular, we find a positive...

The goal of this paper is to address the role of the real effective exchange rate (fundamentals, misalignment and volatility) for the current account using a panel data analysis for a set of 58 countries, over the period of 1994-2014. The results suggest that exchange rate misalignment is...

This paper investigates how much of the current account adjustment after the global financial crisis in Spain can be explained by cyclical factors. For this purpose, we extend the IMF's external balance assessment methodology to allow for country-specific slopes and intercepts. The good fit of...

This paper analyzes the link between the current account and the terms of trade, in the case of Argentina's economy. SVAR models with long-term restrictions and annual data covering the period 1986-2014 are used. The response functions suggest a positive reaction from the current account to...

In den südeuropäischen Krisenländern Griechenland, Portugal und Spanien erfolgen bereits merkliche Anpassungen, die dort infolge der Leistungsbilanzdefizite und der hohen Auslandsverschuldung notwendig sind. Die Wachstumsraten der realen Exporte waren zuletzt überaus kräftig. Zum Teil...

Der Artikel diskutiert den Zusammenhang von zunehmender Einkommensungleichheit, Finanzialisierung und makroökonomischen Ungleichgewichten im Vorfeld der weltweiten Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise ab 2007. Neben den Fallbeispielen USA und Deutschland werden Ergebnisse aus modellgestützten...

The present value model of the current account has been very popular, as it provides an optimal benchmark to which actual current account series have often been compared. We show why persistence in observed current account data makes the estimated optimal series very sensitive to small-sample...

The article reminds of two seminal contributions by Fritz Walter Meyer and Paul Anthony Samuelson who showed that Hume's price specie flow is logically incorrect.

One of the most important open macroeconomic issues, during the current global economic recession, concerns the sustainability of persistent budget and trade deficits as well as possible interactions between them. These deficits are most crucial due to severe debt servicing costs, faced by...