Der Aufschwung der Weltkonjunktur hat in diesem Jahr etwas an Fahrt verloren. Nach einer schwachen Entwicklung zu Jahresbeginn folgte zwar ein recht kräftiger Anstieg der Weltproduktion im zweiten Quartal, jedoch überzeichnet dieser wohl die zugrunde liegende konjunkturelle Dynamik. Auch...

The global economy is losing steam. After a weak start in the beginning of this year, world production accelerated again in the second quarter of 2018. However, the recent expansion probably overstates its underlying momentum. At the same time, the expansion is becoming less even as compared to...

The global financial crisis and the dramatic slump in private capital flows associated with it has particularly affected the economies of the Baltic countries. The real gross domestic product decreased in the first half of 2009 in Latvia by 18.8 percent, in Estonia by 15.7 percent and in...

Die globale Finanzkrise und der damit verbundene dramatische Einbruch der privaten Kapitalflüsse hat die Volkswirtschaften der baltischen Länder in besonderem Maße getroffen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im ersten Halbjahr 2009 in Lettland um 18,8 Prozent, in Estland um 15,7 Prozent und...

This paper uses Granger causality tests on a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) and currency crises for 17 countries to evaluate the direction of causality between the FSI and currency crises. The FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) is used. Also, different definitions for currency...

This research paper aims to analyse some Early Warning Systems (EWS) for predicting financial crises. The importance of such a study is undeniable in the context of the current and future mix of policies applied by the monetary authority, in which financial stability and price stability play an...

We propose a novel approach that combines random forests and the wavelet transform to model the prediction of currency crises. Our classification model of random forests, built using both standard predictors and wavelet predictors, and obtained from the wavelet transform, achieves a demonstrably...

Currency crises are a significant feature of the present-day world economy, in which financial transactions are many times larger than monetary flows in the "real economy", so that defending a currency's exchange-rate is a major challenge for the governments of countries which may be smaller...

In response to questions about the relative importance of different types of capital flow for international competitiveness, we develop a structural vector auto-regressive model of the real exchange rate and international capital flows. We reveal that innovations to speculative sentiment cause...