Showing 1 - 10 of 1,557
This paper builds a short-term inflation projections (STIP) model for Latvia. The model is designed to forecast highly disaggregated consumer prices using cointegrated ARDL approach of [Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013470760
We propose our quarterly earnings prediction (QEPSVR) model, which is based on epsilon support vector regression (ε-SVR), as a new univariate model for quarterly earnings forecasting. This follows the recommendations of Lorek (Adv Account 30:315–321, 2014....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014504255
Volatility is a key concept for understanding the dual relationships between the economic variables since it is … understand which determinants and conditions can affect the volatility. These models mostly show the significant relationships … GARCH-M MIDAS model. We formulate this model on stock prices and exchange rates, in which long run volatility is driven by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014518992
In this paper we examine the issue of asymmetry in the return and volatility spillover effects from the US equity … considerably from those for Mexico. In particular, the empirical results indicate that volatility spillover effects, but not return … market into the Canadian and Mexican equity markets. We model the conditional volatility of the returns in each of the three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295295
obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on … illustration provides an example of where an explanatory model outperforms realised volatility ex post. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332964
This survey reviews the large and growing literature on the use of pair-copula constructions (PCCs) in financial applications. Using a PCC, multivariate data that exhibit complex patterns of dependence can be modeled using bivariate copulae as simple building blocks. Hence, this model represents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755354
In this paper, we propose a general family of Birnbaum–Saunders autoregressive conditional duration (BS-ACD) models based on generalized Birnbaum-Saunders (GBS) distributions, denoted by GBS-ACD. We further generalize these GBS-ACD models by using a Box-Cox transformation with a shape parameter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012611276
There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian shrinkage combination approach. This methodology is used in order to improve the predictions accuracy by including information that is not captured by the econometric models....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010435946
This study aims to refine unemployment forecasts by incorporating the degree of consensus in consumers' expectations. With this objective, we first model the unemployment rate in eight European countries using the step-wise algorithm proposed by Hyndman and Khandakar (J Stat Softw 27(3):1-22,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012208423
Electricity price forecasting has become an area of increasing relevance in recent years. Despite the growing interest in predictive algorithms, the challenges are difficult to overcome given the restricted access to relevant data series and the lack of accurate metrics. Multiple models have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014463423