Gaussian affine term structure models attribute time-varying bond risk premia to changing risk prices driven by the conditional means of the risk factors, while structural models with recursive preferences credit it to stochastic volatility. We reconcile these competing channels by introducing a...

This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the U.K. economy has changed over time. To this end, we propose an extended time-varying VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on key macroeconomic and financial...

"The Great Recession" was preceded by a prolonged period of high growth accompanied by low and stable inflation, the so called "The Great Moderation". In Spain, a similar pattern was observed: in fact, potential growth estimates were trending upwards, implying that output gaps remained...

European integration and enlargement, in the context of decreasing support of European country nationals, needs great men and great ideas standing with. J.M.Keynes proves in his book”The Economic Consequences of the Peace” that there is no other way for Europe than acts together. His...

Business cycle synchronization represents a condition for the successful implementation of the common monetary policy within the Economic and Monetary Union. There is a tight relation between business cycle synchronization and the economic convergence of the Member States of the Monetary Union....

Globalization and business cycles are equally elusive economic phenomena; hence they represent a continuous research possibility and a source of possible inquiries due to their complex nature. The aim of the paper is to explain the synchronization of business cycles using the relationship between...

This article summarizes the main findings on problems related to the measurement and identification of business cycles. The aim of this study is to define and identify the determinants of business cycles. This paper provides an overview of the methodology and its future course. Our investigation...

This paper studies the role of the exchange rate regime for trade of new products. It first provides VAR evidence that a rise in external productivity shifts trade away from new products and more so in fixed regimes. Then, it presents a model with firm dynamics in line with this evidence. We...

In this article, we provide new, novel evidence for a more recent structural break (in 2010) indicating a greater moderation of output volatility compared to the well-known break during the mid-1980s. The period of analysis runs from 1962Q2 to 2018Q3. It covers 26 OECD countries. In terms of...

This paper examines the business cycle properties of Visegrad group countries. The main objective is to identify business cycles in these countries and to study the relationships between them. The author applies a modification of the Fourier analysis to estimate cycle amplitudes and frequencies....