Showing 1 - 10 of 327
We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317084
A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332964
series has been use for the forecasting the shock occurring in the economic data series. Objective and Subjective technique …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011938290
This paper shows how to decompose weakly stationary time series into the sum, across time scales, of uncorrelated components associated with different degrees of persistence. In particular, we provide an Extended Wold Decomposition based on an isometric scaling operator that makes averages of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012215416
of multi-channel customer contact, organizational decision-makers often rely on robust but simplistic forecasting methods …. Although forecasting literature indicates that incorporating additional information into time series predictions adds value by … for call center arrivals' forecasting that is able to capture the dynamics of a time series and to include contextual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501665
simple and threshold jumps and continuous variation yields a substantial improvement in volatility forecasting or not. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011938937
quantitative macroeconomics. However, DSGE models were not considered as a forecasting tool until very recently. The objective of … this paper is twofold. First, we compare the forecasting ability of a canonical DSGE model for the Spanish economy with … VAR operates with artificial series obtained from a DSGE model. The results indicate that the out-of-sample forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317125
DIWAX is an agent-based software package designed to support macroeconomic forecasting based on national accounting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377813
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696424
Überraschend ist im Mai die Arbeitslosigkeit gefallen. Diese positive Entwicklung wird sich im Juni zunächst fortsetzen. Diese Einschätzung basiert auf einem neuen methodischen Konzept, das Google-Aktivitätsdaten für die kurzfristige Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit einsetzt. Gerade in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602014