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This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014547774
Do financial crises radicalize voters? We study Germany's 1931 banking crisis, collecting new data on bank branches and firm-bank connections. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in precrisis exposure to the bank at the center of the crisis, we show that Nazi votes surged in locations more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014279951
between vacancies and unemployment with a structural change-an outward shift-around 1986. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011603707
-Mortensen-Pissarides model. Log linearization under- states the mean and volatility of unemployment, but overstates the volatility of labor … market tightness and the magnitude of the unemployment-vacancy correlation. Log linearization also understates the impulse … responses in unemployment in recessions, but overstates the responses in the market tightness in booms. Finally, the second …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011995499
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011695607
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011695608
This paper provides robust estimates of the impact of both product and labor market regulations on unemployment using … set of covariates, results show that product market deregulation overall reduces the unemployment rate. This finding is … effect: deregulation of state controls and in particular involvement in business operations tend to push up the unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012290405
them to re‑enter the labour market, resulting in further long‑term unemployment. Given these high costs for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518444
We study unemployment insurance in a framework where the main source of heterogeneity among agents is the type of … aggregate wealth moments. Our central finding is that changes to the current unemployment insurance program are valued … differently by married and single households. In particular, a more generous unemployment insurance reduces the welfare of married …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012215422
Banking/financial crises have occurred in countries at all levels of income and in all parts of the world. These crises not only occur too frequently, but also are too costly. Countries everywhere therefore have enacted laws that established regulatory authorities with responsibility to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012611245