We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate forecasts for a large cross-section of short time series of censored observations. Our fully Bayesian approach allows us to flexibly estimate the cross-sectional distribution of heterogeneous coefficients and then implicitly...

This paper considers a linear panel data model with time varying heterogeneity. Bayesian inference techniques organized around Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are applied to implement new estimators that combine smoothness priors on unobserved heterogeneity and priors on the factor structure of...

Operational risk management remains a major concern for financial institutions. Indeed, institutions are bound to manage their own funds to hedge this risk. In this paper, we propose an approach to allocate one's own funds based on a combination of historical data and expert opinion using the...

The construction of an internal rating model is the main task for the bank in the framework of the IRB-foundation approach the fact that it is necessary to determine the probability of default by rating class. As a result, several statistical approaches can be used, such as logistic regression...

This article analyzes the impact of capital structure and bank liquidity on the performance of commercial banks in Vietnam, a transition market in Asia. This research is unique because it is the first study to employ the Bayesian Estimation methods in banking studies. The data includes 463...

In this paper, we use a geoadditve Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis to empirically assess the impact of provincial-level financial development, corruption control, and their interaction on firm efficiency in Vietnam. Using panel data from more than 40,000 Vietnamese firms during 2006-2013,...

They do. Partly. We identify credit supply shocks via sign restrictions in a Bayesian VAR and separate them into positive and negative. Using local projections, we find that positive credit supply shocks leave notably different prints in private debt, mortgage debt, and debt-to-GDP, as opposed...

This paper examines the effect of message characteristics on donation behavior using an economic model of giving. The utility of giving can come from one's own contribution and possibly from the combined contributions of others. Donors are assumed to be constrained utility maximizers, and the...

The last twenty years have brought a bulk of inconsistent results on the determinants of business cycle synchronization (BCS). Researchers have usually focused their attention on a limited set of possible determinants, not accounting for model uncertainty. For these reasons, Bayesian Model...

This paper investigates how inflation and its uncertainty impact GDP growth in eight Central and Eastern European Countries. Inflation uncertainty series are created examining several GARCH models in combination with three different distribution functions, while the nonlinear effect of inflation...