The last twenty years have brought a bulk of inconsistent results on the determinants of business cycle synchronization (BCS). Researchers have usually focused their attention on a limited set of possible determinants, not accounting for model uncertainty. For these reasons, Bayesian Model...

Currency market intervention cum reserve accumulation has emerged as the favored »self-insurance« strategy in recipient countries of excessive private capital inflows. This paper argues that capital account management represents a less costly alternative line of defense deserving renewed...

The aim of this paper is to identify the different shocks that could affect the current account in the argentine case, such as the terms of trade (the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect- HLM), supply shocks (productivity), demand shocks (real exchange rate and public consumption /current GDP) and...

The goal of this paper is to address the role of the real effective exchange rate (fundamentals, misalignment and volatility) for the current account using a panel data analysis for a set of 58 countries, over the period of 1994-2014. The results suggest that exchange rate misalignment is...

This paper investigates how much of the current account adjustment after the global financial crisis in Spain can be explained by cyclical factors. For this purpose, we extend the IMF's external balance assessment methodology to allow for country-specific slopes and intercepts. The good fit of...

This paper investigates the relationship between demographics and the current account. We analyze the impact of recent demographic changes and provide a forecast of its future impact. Overall, we find a strong and robust, non-linear demographic effect. In particular, we find a positive...

The present value model of the current account has been very popular, as it provides an optimal benchmark to which actual current account series have often been compared. We show why persistence in observed current account data makes the estimated optimal series very sensitive to small-sample...

This paper discusses Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in Stochastic Frontier Analysis and investigates inference sensitivity to prior assumptions made about the scale parameter of (in)efficiency. We turn our attention to the "standard" prior specifications for the popular normal-half-normal and...

In this paper, we examine the determinants of outward FDI from four major OECD investors, namely, the US, Germany, France, and the Netherlands, to 129 developing countries classified under five regions over the period 1995-2008. Our goal is to distinguish whether the motivation for FDI differs...

Very high costs of systemic banking crises emphasize the importance of early warning models for these crises. In order to create an early warning model for systemic banking crises a combined approach is implemented. The first approach applied in this paper is signal approach, however, with some...