Showing 1 - 10 of 1,428
This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010306877
In this paper we examine the issue of asymmetry in the return and volatility spillover effects from the US equity … market into the Canadian and Mexican equity markets. We model the conditional volatility of the returns in each of the three … considerably from those for Mexico. In particular, the empirical results indicate that volatility spillover effects, but not return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295295
The study aimed at determining a set of superior generalized orthogonal-GARCH (GO-GARCH) models for forecasting time-varying conditional correlations and variances of five foreign exchange rates vis-à-vis the Nigerian Naira. Daily data covering the period 02/01/2009 to 19/03/2015 was used, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011961639
multivariate GARCH model with exogenous news effects, we find that the initial impact of positive news on the volatility of the … that an important part of the impact on the Yen and Pound is induced by volatility spillover from the Euro. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012610925
We propose a methodology to include night volatility estimates in the day volatility modeling problem with high … the natural relationship between the realized measure and the conditional variance. This improves volatility modeling by … leverage effect and maintains a mathematical structure that facilitates volatility estimation. A class of bivariate models that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696256
Banks are concerned with the assessment of the risk of financial distress before giving out a loan. Many researchers proposed the use of models based on the Neural Networks in order to help the banker better make a decision. The objective of this paper is to explore a new practical way based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015195941
Credit risk is defined as the risk that borrowers will fail to pay its loan obligations. In recent years, a large number of banks have developed sophisticated systems and models to help bankers in quantifying, aggregating and managing risk. The outputs of these models also play increasingly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015196083
This study explores the redundancy of the value premium by conducting a Fourier analysis. The results illustrate periodicity in the value premium and merges the Adaptive Market Hypothesis with the Efficient Market hypothesis. The value premium is considered to be redundant due to structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014001392
– especially after periods of high market volatility – concerning the goodness of risk quantification for the examined events. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014522655
We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate forecasts for a large cross-section of short time series of censored observations. Our fully Bayesian approach allows us to flexibly estimate the cross-sectional distribution of heterogeneous coefficients and then implicitly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014536986