Macroeconomic models that are based on either the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) or behavioral considerations share a core premise: All future market outcomes can be characterized ex ante with a single overarching probability distribution. This paper assesses the empirical relevance of...

This paper examines the determinants of the South African rand/US dollar (ZAR/USD) exchange rate based on demand and supply analysis. Applying the EGARCH method, the paper finds that the ZAR/USD exchange rate is positively associated with the South African government bond yield, US real GDP, the...

The main goal of this paper is the empirical examination of the Polish stock market reactions to dividend announcements and dividend payouts made by the companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). The research sample comprises 56 companies (WIG index constituents) that announced...

Hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical signal prediction model, which has been widely used to predict economic regimes and stock prices. In this paper, we introduce the application ofHMMin trading stocks (with S&P 500 index being an example) based on the stock price predictions. The...

Future stock prices depend on many internal and external factors that are not easy to evaluate. In this paper, we use the Hidden Markov Model, (HMM), to predict a daily stock price of three active trading stocks: Apple, Google, and Facebook, based on their historical data. We first use the...

The direction of price movements are analysed under an ordered probit framework, recognising the importance of accounting for discreteness in price changes. By extending the work of Hausman et al. (1972) and Yang and Parwada (2012),This paper focuses on improving the forecast performance of the...

This paper reports a study on the causal dynamics between spot oil price, exchange rates, and stock prices in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Serbia. The results are compared with a benchmark analysis in which U.S. monthly data are used, and time periods are selected according...

This article revisits the question of whether crude oil prices have a positive effect on stock the prices of renewable energy firms. To examine this question carefully, we allow for the asymmetric effects of oil price changes in our modeling process, using the nonlinear autoregressive...

Identification schemes are of essential importance in structural analysis. This paper focuseson testing a commonly used long-run structural parameter identification scheme claiming to identifyfundamental and non-fundamental shocks to stock prices. Five related widely used structural modelson...

We study fluctuations in stock prices using a framework derived from the present value model augmented with a macroeconomic factor. The fundamental value is derived as the expected present discounted value of broad dividends that include, in addition to traditional cash dividends, other payouts...