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The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach

Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Segnon, Mawuli - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 10 (2016) 2016-27, pp. 1-20

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011555275

Real-financial connectedness in the Swiss economy

Uluceviz, Erhan; Yılmaz, Kamil - In: Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 156 (2020) 1, pp. 1-20

We study macro-financial linkages and their importance within the Swiss economy from a network perspective. First, we investigate the real-financial connectedness in the Swiss economy, using the KOF economic barometer, obtained from real and financial variables, and, the real activity index...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013205785

Google search activity data and breaking trends

Askitas, Nikolaos - In: IZA World of Labor (2015)

Using Google search activity data can help detect, in real time and at high frequency, a wide spectrum of breaking socio-economic trends around the world. This wealth of data is the result of an ongoing and ever more pervasive digitization of information. Search activity data stand in contrast...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011405035

Konjunkturelle Frühindikatoren in der Krise: weiche Faktoren stärker als harte

Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Kooths, Stefan - In: DIW Wochenbericht 76 (2009) 21, pp. 348-354

Die aktuelle Wirtschaftskrise wirft die Frage auf, ob nicht durch eine bessere Ausschöpfung der in den verschiedenen Frühindikatoren enthaltenen Informationen die aufgetretenen Prognosefehler hätten vermieden werden können. Dies gilt insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund des überraschend...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602002

Verbraucherumfragen für Konsumprognosen besser nutzen

Dreger, Christian; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - In: DIW Wochenbericht 78 (2011) 28, pp. 3-8

Mehr als die Hälfte des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im Euroraum wird für den privaten Verbrauch verwendet. Daher kommt der Genauigkeit von Konsumprognosen eine besondere Bedeutung zu. Da der Konsum maßgeblich von den Stimmungen der Akteure beeinflusst wird, weist die Europäische Kommission...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602375

Nowcasting quarterly GDP dynamics in the euro area: The role of sentiment indicators

Gajewski, Paweł - In: Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe 17 (2014) 2, pp. 5-23

The paper compares the most closely watched sentiment indicators with respect to their ability to nowcast quarterly GDP dynamics in the Euro Area and its biggest economies. We analyse cross-correlations and out-of-sample forecast errors generated from equations estimated by rolling regressions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011922327

The role of ECB speeches in nowcasting German GDP

Koçak, Necmettin Alpay - In: European Financial and Accounting Journal 15 (2020) 2, pp. 5-30

The literature shows that the nowcasting models generally use structured data such as real, financial and survey … indicators. Recent research has focused on finding the way how to use the unstructured data in the nowcasting models. The search … is analysed how the ECB presidents' speeches are included in the nowcasting model and to what degree they affect the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012623028

Real estate listings and their usefulness for hedonic regressions

Kolbe, Jens; Schulz, Rainer; Wersing, Martin; Werwatz, Axel - In: Empirical Economics 61 (2021) 6, pp. 3239-3269

, as it is useful for nowcasting. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014497601

A factor analysis for the Spanish economy

Cuevas, Ángel; Quilis, Enrique M. - In: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 3 (2012) 3, pp. 311-338

We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317084

Forecasting Baden‐Württemberg's GDP growth: MIDAS regressions versus dynamic mixed‐frequency factor models

Kuck, Konstantin; Schweikert, Karsten - In: Journal of Forecasting 40 (2021) 5, pp. 861-882

trade. For this purpose, we evaluate the backcasting and nowcasting performance of mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012509450