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degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which … forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation … distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011553303
. Proposed extensions include a volatility regime switching mechanism (using dummy variables and the Markov approach) and the … fifth risk factor based on realized volatility of index returns. Moreover, instead of using data for stocks of a particular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539896
We find that interest rate variance risk premium (IRVRP) - the difference between implied and realized variances of interest rates - is a strong predictor of U.S. Treasury bond returns of maturities ranging between one and ten years for return horizons up to six months. IRVRP is not subsumed by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014433708
dynamics of CDS volatility spillover effects surrounding the UK's EU membership referendum commonly known as "Brexit". Using a … the underlined CDS. In particular, we find that UK, Italy and Spain are the "net volatility transmitters", while France … and Germany seem the "net volatility receivers". Our findings may help in formulating appropriate regulatory policies and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259768
this, put forward the view that stock and bond return volatility is key. Evidence from the 2000s suggest that the relative … that the relative equity and bond yield values are, to a large extent, driven by inflation volatility. High inflation … volatility persisted during the first half of the twentieth century when the equity yield was higher. This was followed by more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011963922
one-month variance swap rate, i.e., the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) accurately. Our research suggests that one should use …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174118
This paper aims to examine the relation between idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) and stock returns with full-sample and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219258
This paper studies the historical time-varying dynamics of risk for individual stocks in the U.S. market. Total risk of an individual stock is decomposed into two components, systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk, and both components are studied separately. We start from the historical trend in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628441
This paper examines the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and COVID-19 shock on stock returns. Tests of 16 global stock market indices, using monthly data from January 1990 to August 2021, suggest a negative relation between the stock return and a country’s EPU. Evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813880
uncertainty (EPU) index. The present work determines the association among policy uncertainty and volatility index, expressed in …. The results suggest that equity markets' volatility tends to be very high based on a high degree of policy uncertainty … that implied volatility index is a forward looking expectation of future stock market volatility, and it uncovers that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271841