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A comparative analysis of macroeconomic forecasts accuracy in Spain and Romania

Bratu, Mihaela - In: UTMS journal of economics / University of Tourism and … 6 (2015) 1, pp. 67-74

In this study a comparative analysis of the forecasts accuracy for Spain (developed country) and Romania (developing country) was developed for the crisis period (2009 - 2013). The providers are national forecasters: Bank of Spain and FUNCAS (Spanish Savings Banks Foundation) for Spain and two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298802

Spanish GDP short-term point and density forecasting using a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model

Fresoli, Diego - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 15 (2024) 2, pp. 145-177

product forecasts. We evaluated the predictive content of data releases from point and density forecast perspectives, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015073109

Potential of business uncertainty indicators in forecasting economic activity : the case of Russia

Lola, Inna S.; Asoskov, Dmitry G. - In: Russian journal of economics 10 (2024) 4, pp. 351-364

activity, characterized by lower forecast errors compared to standard autoregressive models, were built. According to the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015396286

Some cross-country evidence on information rigidity in inflation forecasts

Miah, Fazlul; Al-Titi, Omar; Wane, Abdoul - In: Cogent economics & finance 11 (2023) 1, pp. 1-22

gathering picking up during the recession period. We also find that forecast revisions depend on both own country and cross …-country lagged revisions. Therefore, one source of information rigidity is not to incorporate overseas events in forecast revisions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014500886

Nowcasting finnish GDP growth using financial variables : a MIDAS approach

Laine, Olli-Matti; Lindblad, Annika - In: Journal of the Finnish Economic Association : JFEA 2 (2021) 1, pp. 74-108

We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. In particular, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to nowcast quarterly GDP growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013286502

Macroeconomic forecasts in models with Bayesian averaging of classical estimates

Białowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - In: Contemporary economics 6 (2012) 1, pp. 60-69

tendency survey-based indicators. Additionally, survey-based indicators are included with a lag that enables to forecast the … additional assumptions concerning the values of predictor variables in the forecast period. Bayesian Averaging of Classical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767634

Bayesian averaging vs. dynamic factor models for forecasting economic aggregates with tendency survey data

Bialowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - 2015

The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and … performance was observed from Bayesian models adopting the frequentist approach. Forecast of the unemployment rate were generated … atheoretical, they provide reasonable forecast accuracy, no worse to that expected from structural models. A further advantage to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349021

Accuracy, unbiasedness, and efficiency of current account growth forecast : evidence from a large cross section of developed and developing economies

Miah, Fazlul; Wane, Abdoul - In: Cogent economics & finance 6 (2018) 1, pp. 1-22

existing literature. Forecast errors are bigger for the developing country comparing to the developed country. Developed … country forecast errors are unbiased but inefficient. The developing country forecast errors are biased but relatively more … efficient. In both the panels, forecast revisions are efficient for the same forecast horizons, but inefficient for the adjacent …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023196

short-term forecasting of slovak GDP based on high-frequency data

Lőrincze, Péter - In: Ekonomické rozhl'ady 54 (2025) 2, pp. 132-163

utilize the last observation from the economic activity index acting as a short-term GDP forecast. We use data from 2000 to … high-frequency data has better forecasting capabilities and may better forecast economic recessions and growths in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015418703

On accuracy of survey forecasts of US mortgage spread

Baghestani, Hamid - In: Cogent economics & finance 6 (2018) 1, pp. 1-10

The cyclical variation behavior of the mortgage spread has motivated some studies to investigate its relationship to economic activity. Indeed, recent empirical findings indicate that the mortgage spread is a determinant/predictor of economic activity. We define the mortgage spread as the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011905193