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Modeling autoregressive processes with moving-quantiles-implied nonlinearity
Ishida, Isao; Kvedaras, Virmantas - In: Econometrics : open access journal 3 (2015) 1, pp. 2-54
We introduce and investigate some properties of a class of nonlinear time series models based on the moving sample quantiles in the autoregressive data generating process. We derive a test fit to detect this type of nonlinearity. Using the daily realized volatility data of Standard & Poor's 500...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478989
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On fractionally integrated logistic smooth transitions in time series
Shittu, Olanrewaju I.; Yaya, OlaOlua S. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 2 (2011) 1, pp. 1-13
Long memory and nonlinearity are two key features of some macroeconomic time series which are characterized by persistent shocks that seem to rise faster during recession than it falls during expansion. A variant of nonlinear time series model together with long memory are used to examine these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477601
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Smooth threshold autoregressive models and Markov process : an application to the Lebanese GDP growth rate
Verne, Jean-François - In: International econometric review 13 (2021) 3, pp. 71-88
This paper analyzes the evolution of the Lebanese GDP growth rate over the period 1970- 2019 by estimating two kinds of switching models: The Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model and the model of the Markov process. These models show, on the one hand, asymmetries in the evolution of GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012816175
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Nature and causes of economic fluctuations : evidence from the U.S. based on a nonlinear autoregressive integrated process
Li, Xiang; He, Zonglu - In: International journal of empirical economics 2 (2023) 3, pp. 1-21
Business cycles and economic growth have long been studied separately, hindering understanding of the nature and causes of economic fluctuations and growth. Here, we present an economic model that incorporates both deterministic trends and persistent fluctuations, derived from a general economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014430575
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The persistence of suicides in G20 countries between 1990 and 2017 : an SPSM approach to three generations of unit root tests
Anyikwa, Izunna; Hamman, Nicolene; Phiri, Andrew - In: Comparative economic research : Central and Eastern Europe 24 (2021) 2, pp. 153-173
Suicides represent an encompassing measure of psychological wellbeing, emotional stability as well as life satisfaction, and they have been recently identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a major global health concern. The G20 countries represent the powerhouse of global economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012666866
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Uusing the symmetric models garch (1.1) and garch-m (1.1) to investigate volatility and persistence for the european and us financial markets
Duță, Violeta - In: Financial studies 22 (2018) 1, pp. 64-86
In this paper, we used the GARCH (1,1) and GARCH-M (1,1) models to investigate volatility and persistence at daily frequency for European and US financial markets. In the study we included fourteen stock indices (twelve Europeans and two Americans), during March 2013 - January 2017. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011964941
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Forecasting stock market volatility : an asymmetric conditional autoregressive range mixed data sampling (ACARR-MIDAS) model
Wu, Xinyu; Han, Yang; Ma, Chaoqun - In: Journal of risk 23 (2021) 6, pp. 1-35
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013473133
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Hybridising neurofuzzy model the seasonal autoregressive models for electricity price forecasting on Germany's spot market
Paraschiv, Dorel Mihai; Bălășoiu, Narciz; Ben Amor, … - In: Amfiteatru economic : an economic and business research … 25 (2023) 63, pp. 463-478
Electricity price forecasting has become an area of increasing relevance in recent years. Despite the growing interest in predictive algorithms, the challenges are difficult to overcome given the restricted access to relevant data series and the lack of accurate metrics. Multiple models have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014464238
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Is more still better? : revisiting the sixth district coincident indicator
Silos, Pedro; Vilán, Diego - 2009
version of the D6 Factor that improves upon the original model in several ways. While the original D6 based its estimation on … estimation period by a decade. These changes provide the updated model with substantially more information while reducing the … noise in the estimation. -- coincident index ; dynamic factor model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009419466
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Bivariate volatility modeling with high-frequency data
Matei, Marius; Rovira, Xari; Agell, Núria - In: Econometrics : open access journal 7 (2019) 3/41, pp. 1-15
leverage effect and maintains a mathematical structure that facilitates volatility estimation. A class of bivariate models that … volatility information improves the day volatility estimation. The results indicate a forecasting improvement using bivariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160811