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minor effects on the extracted factors and some measures of risk premia, such as the forward risk premium, they may have a … large impact on other measures of risk premia that is often ignored. In this paper, we analyze how apparently innocuous … overidentifying restrictions imposed on affine term structure models can lead to large differences in several measures of risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011961381
This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886359
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014462650
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014532189
We find that interest rate variance risk premium (IRVRP) - the difference between implied and realized variances of … horizons up to six months. IRVRP is not subsumed by other predictors such as forward rate spread or equity variance risk … long-run risk, economic uncertainty, and inflation non-neutrality. In the model IRVRP is related to short-run risk only …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014433708
endogenous term premium. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and … analytical decomposition to illustrate how multiple distinct endogenous risk wedges account for these differences. Supply and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362538
This paper studies the historical time-varying dynamics of risk for individual stocks in the U.S. market. Total risk of … an individual stock is decomposed into two components, systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk, and both components are … studied separately. We start from the historical trend in the magnitude of risk and then turn to the relation between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628441
This study examines whether investors’ attitudes toward ambiguity can explain cross-sectional stock returns by investigating the relationship between future stock returns and option-implied volatilities as well as implied third moments. We find that investors’ attitudes toward different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014232777
The capital asset pricing model has failed to explain the effect of systematic risk (referred to as beta) on actual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012592728
evidence that the MAX effect overwhelms the effects of idiosyncratic risk. When we control for idiosyncratic risk, the negative … idiosyncratic risk factors explains the negative premium. Furthermore, our results are not fully explained by the exposure to the … market timing and economic state. Overall, both the extreme return and idiosyncratic risk effects appear to coexist in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012592789