We use the Twitter application programming interface to construct a novel indicator capturing the varying perceptions of geopolitical risk related to the war in Ukraine. We show that the Twitter variable is a statistically significant determinant of the EUR/PLN exchange rate following the...

This article investigates the effects of the different exchange rate regimes on business cycles comovement between advanced and emerging countries. We use the Granger Causality test (VAR model) on panel data to examine the causal relationships. Our findings show the existence of a bidirectional...

Over the past years, there has been an increase in global geopolitical risk, the most recent example being the intensifying conflict between the USA and Iran. Such geopolitical risks also affect the German economy. A geopolitical shock, defined as an unexpected increase in risk, has a...

This study uses the time-varying parameter/stochastic volatility vector autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to explore the impact of uncertainty risk on oil prices. Economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk were used as proxy variables for economic and political uncertainty risk. The study...

The global debate among policy makers and environmentalists concerns how environmental degradation can be minimized without impeding economic growth. Because of intensification of geopolitical uncertainty, achieving this balance has become difficult. To contribute to breaking this "deadlock",...