Economic time-series data is commonly categorized into a discrete number of persistent regimes. I survey a variety of approaches for real-time prediction of these regimes and the turning points between them, where these predictions are formed in a data-rich environment. I place particular...

This paper considers the ability of simulated data from linear and nonlinear time-series models to reproduce features in U.S. real GDP data related to business cycle phases. We focus our analysis on a number of linear ARIMA models and nonlinear Markov-switching models. To determine the timing of...