In line with term structure theory, empirical studies suggest that it is difficult to beat the random walk in forecasting long-term interest rates. We ask whether consumer survey data on both mortgage interest rates and expected inflation help beat the random walk in forecasting the 30-year...

Using different econometric models, Diebold and Li (J Econom 130:337-364, 2006) addressed the practical problem of forecasting the yield curve by predicting the factors level, slope and curvature in the Nelson-Siegel framework. This paper has two main aims: on the one hand, to investigate the...

Following (Almeida, Ardison, Kubudi, Simonsen, & Vicente, 2018) we implement a segmented three factor Nelson-Siegel model for the yield curve using daily observable bond prices and short term interbank rates for Colombia. The flexible estimation for each segment (short, medium, and long)...

This paper examines the predictive ability of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates in the BRICS and G7 countries by relating each country’s monthly 3‑month Treasury bill rate to 10‑year government bond rates, from May 2003 to May 2018. The panel ARDL model,...

Economic policy drives investment, production, employment, and other macroeconomic indicators of the economy. The study examines the equity, commodity, interest rates, and currency markets, taking into consideration the US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index. The present work determines the...

Status quo bias is a systematic cognitive error which makes it difficult for individuals to make decisions independently of the currently dominant situation. This study pursues the question of whether bond market analysts are affected by status quo bias. We evaluated interest rate forecast...

We revise previous literature about Fisher Effect, in order to check if the majority of nominal interest rates movements are caused by inflation rate fluctuations, remaining constant the real interest rate. Finally, we analyse the Fisher Effect in the Spanish case with a preliminary analysis in...

In this paper we formulate the Risk Management Control problem in the interest rate area as a constrained stochastic portfolio optimization problem. The utility that we use can be any continuous function and based on the viscosity theory, the unique solution of the problem is guaranteed. The...

Implementation of monetary policy assumes that monetary policy instruments stabilize O/N interest rates to the proximity of main policy rate to archive monetary targets. The function of stabilizing mechanism is based on simple rule that the volume of liquidity in the banking system is held in...