Für den Ausgleich von Schwankungen der Stromnachfrage und des Stromangebotes aus erneuerbaren Energien sind Kraftwerke nötig, die auch in kritischen Situationen sicher zur Verfügung stehen. Es wird diskutiert, ob der liberalisierte Strommarkt in der Lage ist, ausreichende Investitionen...

This study sets out to determine the desirable policy adjustment in the tax rate for Nigeria that ensures the least welfare cost. A calibrated small open-economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model of the Nigerian economy is applied to achieve this objective....

Following the extra ordinary decision to bail in the unsecured depositors and restructure the two main banks and the near complete destruction of the country’s economic business model as an International Financial Centre, the author considers the changes necessary to rebuild the economy of...

We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing that is aimed at assessing banks’ capital adequacy, financial fragility, and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on...

The recent evolution of prudential regulation establishes a new requirement for banks and supervisors to perform reverse stress test exercises in their risk assessment processes, aimed at detecting default or near-default scenarios. We propose a reverse stress test methodology based on a...

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the default probabilities in infrastructure projects. For that, we analyze the exposure of the lenders to a state of default. This application is made by assuming the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) dynamic itself and the payment profile determined by...

Facing an hypothetical, but increasingly, case of default risk on a mortgage or a fall in interest rates, an important issue raised by the borrower is the possibility of minimizing that risk by selecting the best refinancing option. In this paper, a mortgage refinancing model is presented,...

The traditional loans pricing methods are usually based on risk measures of individual loan's characteristics without considering the correlation between the defaults of different loans and the contribution of individual loans to the entire loan portfolio. In this study, using account-level...

Die theoretische Literatur erklärt den Mehrwert von Bürgschaftsbanken und anderen staatlich gestützten Bürgschaftseinrichtungen für kleine und mittlere Unternehmen (KMU) durch deren Wirkung, Finanzierungsengpässe infolge von fehlenden Sicherheiten und hohen Informationsasymmetrien zu...