The purpose of this paper is to compare the accuracy of the three types of models: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, Holt-Winters models and Neural Network Auto-Regressive (NNAR) models in forcasting the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the countries of...

The hierarchical structure of the Colombian Consumer Price Index (CPI) makes possible to calculate inflation as a linear combination of its subcomponents. We use SARIMA models to forecast each component of CPI and construct an forecast of inflation using a lineal combination of the forecasts of...

The study investigates the existence and extent of information rigidity in inflation forecasts among 25 developed and 18 developing economies during 2002-2017 period utilizing a survey data set never explored before on this issue. In general, the study finds some evidence of information...

Smart networks, e.g., smart grids (SGs) as complex interconnected systems have become more complex and require greater processing and communication capabilities due to the growing use of renewable energy (RE). In addition to being a reliable method for collecting and managing information,...

Banks play a vital role in strengthening the financial system of a country; hence, their survival is decisive for the stability of national economies. Therefore, analyzing the survival probability of the banks is an essential and continuing research activity. However, the current literature...

Over the past 10 years dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become an important tool in quantitative macroeconomics. However, DSGE models were not considered as a forecasting tool until very recently. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we compare the forecasting...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both "naive" forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...

In this study a comparative analysis of the forecasts accuracy for Spain (developed country) and Romania (developing country) was developed for the crisis period (2009 - 2013). The providers are national forecasters: Bank of Spain and FUNCAS (Spanish Savings Banks Foundation) for Spain and two...

Den gängigen Konjunkturprognosen liegen in der Regel komplexe ökonometrische Modelle mit einer Vielzahl von Input-Variablen zugrunde. Das Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach fragt in seiner „Neujahrsfrage“ die Bevölkerung seit Gründung der Bundesrepublik jedes Jahr nach ihren Erwartungen...