The output gap measured as the percentage deviation of actual output from its potential level is an indicator of an economy's achievement. Output gap has been an important concept used for forming of policies. In this study, we estimated the potential output and output gap, established some of...

This paper presents three measures of the output gap estimated by a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Czech economy. We argue that the most plausible description of the business cycle provides the output gap defined as a deviation from a flexible price level of output, which is...

This paper argues that the Phillips curve relationship is not sufficient to trace back the output gap, because the effect of excess demand is not symmetric across tradeable and non-tradeable sectors. In the non-tradeable sector, excess demand creates excess employment and inflation via the...

This paper uses symmetric and asymmetric testing procedures to examine the issue of the relationship between the output gap and inflation for the Turkish economy using data from 2002:01 to 2021:09. First, it analyses the cointegration by applying different cointegration tests taking into account...

The primary objectives of this research are to compare the economic performance of the Member States (MS) in the Euro Area 12 (EA-12) of the European Union (EU) that served as net contributors and net recipients of its budget during the period 1998-2022. The comparison focuses on aspects related...

Over the last decades, the estimation of the slack in the economy has become an essential piece of analysis for policymakers, both on the monetary policy and the fiscal policy front. Output gap estimation techniques have flourished accordingly, although there is no consensus on a best-performing...

In this paper, we derive a small textbook New Keynesian DSGE model to evaluate Polish and Romanian business cycles during the 2003 - 2014 period. Given the similarities between the two economies, we use an identical calibration procedure for certain coefficients and marginal prior distributions...

This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the U.K. economy has changed over time. To this end, we propose an extended time-varying VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on key macroeconomic and financial...

Die Entscheidung für einen Brexit hat die Konjunkturängste innerhalb und außerhalb Europas verstärkt. Die Auswirkungen der mit dieser Entscheidung verbundenen ökonomischen Unsicherheit auf den Euroraum und die deutsche Wirtschaft lassen sich mit ökonometrischen Methoden abschätzen. Einer...