Is it possible to guarantee that the mere exposure of a subject to a belief elicitation task will not affect the very same beliefs that we are trying to elicit? In this paper, we introduce mechanisms that make it simultaneously strictly dominant for the subject (a) not to acquire any information...

This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to reply to the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB’s SPF). The results suggest that higher (lower) aggregate uncertainty increases (reduces) non-response to the survey. This...

The study investigates the existence and extent of information rigidity in inflation forecasts among 25 developed and 18 developing economies during 2002-2017 period utilizing a survey data set never explored before on this issue. In general, the study finds some evidence of information...

Technological progress in recent years has made new methods available for making forecasts in a variety of areas. We examine the success of ex-ante stock market forecasts of three major stock market indices, i.e., the German Stock Market Index (DAX), the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI), and the...