The appearance of negative bond yields presents significant challenges for the fixed income markets, which mainly concern related forecasting models. The Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model (NSS) is one of the models that is most frequently used by central banks to estimate the term structure of...

Issues like structural breaks and misspecification biases make it difficult to find a term structure of interest rates forecast model that dominates all competitors. Focusing on Brazilian data, this paper aims to identify the existence of combining methods that provide superior performance than...

This study examines the pricing of municipal bonds before and after a currency shock in Switzerland. Two approaches are used to decompose the municipal to treasuries bond spreads into liquidity, maturity, and default risk premiums. The first approach is the model of the cross-sectional...

This paper investigates the predictability of exchange rate changes by extracting the factors from the three-, four-, and five-factor model of the relative Nelson-Siegel class. Our empirical analysis shows that the relative spread factors are important for predicting future exchange rate...

Geostatistical spatial models are widely used in many applied fields to forecast data observed on continuous three-dimensional surfaces. We propose to extend their use to finance and, in particular, to forecasting yield curves. We present the results of an empirical application where we apply...

The correct modeling of the interest rates term structure should definitely be considered an aspect of primary importance since the forward rates and the discount factors used in any financial and risk analysis are calculated from such structure. The turbulence of the markets in recent years,...

This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

Modern sovereign money is accepted as an institution in virtue of the collective intentionality of the acceptance of the sovereign status function declaration it being the official currency of a country. A status function declaration may not create money it may only create a currency. How does...

Inflation targeting has been widely adopted in Latin America. In this paper, we show evidence consistent with major beneficial effects from so doing, with falling term premia and anchored policy rate expectations. To do this we construct term premia estimates using the method suggested by Adrian...