Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible....

The financial crises of 2007-2008, caused wide-spread falling output and unemployment, in the affected countries and also globally. The severity of the recession was such that it was called the "Great Recession". As a result of an increase in demand from China and India, at the same time, oil...

When the Great Depression struck the United States, O.M.W. Sprague was America's foremost expert on financial crises. His History of Crises under the National Banking System is a frequently cited classic. Had he diagnosed a banking panic and called for an aggressive response by the Federal...

This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...

This study attempts to develop a financial vulnerability indicator serving as a composite indicator for the state of financial vulnerability. The indicator was constructed from 10 variables of macroeconomic, financial and property market by extracting a common vulnerability component through the...

Do financial crises radicalize voters? We analyze a canonical case – Germany during the Great Depression. After a severe banking crisis in 1931, caused by foreign shocks and political inaction, radical voting increased sharply in the following year. Democracy collapsed six months later. We...

I examine the association between college education and left-leaning views in Bolivia using novel survey data. My findings suggest that college education is associated with left-leaning social preferences (college-educated individuals favor social equality and a tax system in which not everybody...

This paper questions the effect of democracy on regulatory reforms by mainly checking whether the observed differences between the transition economies and the rest of the economies in terms of engaged reforms are related to the level of democracy. Our results, based primarily on the Oaxaca -...

Severe recessions and financial crises are frequent. Their effect on the economy is persistent and often exceeds initial projections. They can also be a strong driver of widening inequality. Therefore it is important that measures be taken to minimize the risk of such events while strengthening...