Similar Search Results

False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices

Hembach-Stunden, Katharina; Vorlaufer, Tobias; Engel, … - In: Q open : a journal of agricultural, climate, … 4 (2024) 1, pp. 1-22

risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053857

Partially unforeseen events : corrections and correcting formulae for forecasts

Charin, Aleksandr A. - In: Expert journal of economics 2 (2014) 2, pp. 69-79

A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057407

Demand lotteries, abandonment options and the decision to start R&D and process innovation

Dobbelaere, Sabien; Luttens, Roland Iwan; Peters, Bettina - In: Management revue : MRev 26 (2015) 1, pp. 25-51

We study different determinants of real-life R&D decisions within a net present value framework. Besides entry threat, Bertrand competition and multi-stage R&D with an abandonment option, our model includes demand uncertainty, modelled as a lottery. A lottery becomes more divergent when the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298045

Ambiguity and the historical equity premium

Collard, Fabrice; Mukerji, Sujoy; Sheppard, Kevin; … - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 9 (2018) 2, pp. 945-993

dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's ambiguity aversion to match only the first moment of the risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011994544

The Order of knowledge and robust action : how to deal with economic uncertainty?

Falkinger, Josef - 2016

Uncertainty in economics is generated by “nature” but also by the model we use to “produce the future”. The production of the future comprises besides the allocation of resources on different instruments (technologies, financial products) also the design of the instruments....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011550229

Comparison of the production behavior of regret-averse and purely risk-averse firms

Guo, Xu; Wong, Wing Keung - In: Estudios de economía 46 (2019) 2, pp. 157-171

firms under certainty. This paper extends the theory by further investigating the effects of regret-aversion on production …. We compare the optimal output levels of regret-averse firms with purely risk- averse firms under uncertainty and firms … under certainty. We first show that the linear-regret firms will surely produce more than their purely risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012268101

Escape from model-land

Thompson, Erica L.; Smith, Leonard A. - 2019

Both mathematical modelling and simulation methods in general have contributed greatly to understanding, insight and forecasting in many fields including macroeconomics. Nevertheless, we must remain careful to distinguish model-land and model-land quantities from the real world. Decisions taken...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110757

Expectations concordance and stock market volatility : Knightian uncertainty in the year of the pandemic

Frydman, Roman; Mangee, Nicholas - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 14 (2021) 11, pp. 1-13

This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when novel events that are each somewhat unique cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795039

Expected balanced uncertain utility

Grant, Simon; Roorda, B.; Yang, Jingni - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 20 (2025) 1, pp. 1-25

We introduce and analyze expected balanced uncertain utility (EBUU) theory. A prior and a balanced outcome-set utility … its associated envelope is zero. As a consequence, her risk preferences need only exhibit betweenness allowing for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015332578

Financial ambiguity and oil prices

Ayoub, Mahmoud; Qadan, Mahmoud - In: Financial innovation : FIN 10 (2024), pp. 1-23

Recent theoretical developments in economics distinguish between risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty). Using …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015361650