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A fast method is developed for value-at-risk and expected shortfall prediction for univariate asset return time series exhibiting leptokurtosis, asymmetry and conditional heteroskedasticity. It is based on a GARCH-type process driven by noncentral t innovations. While the method involves the use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429763
This study explores the volatility spillover effects between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies and key financial indices … results reveal significant volatility spillovers from both clean and dirty cryptocurrencies, with clean cryptocurrencies such … volatility impacts on green finance indices. Furthermore, the persistent correlations identified through the DCC GARCH model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015192299
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003839329
market uncertainty and volatility of the investment instruments. Thus, the prediction of the uncertainty and volatilities of … to identify the best fit model that can predict the volatility of return of Bitcoin, which is in high demand as an … the residuals of the average equation model selected have ARCH effect. Volatility of Bitcoin return series after detection …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382180
In this paper, we study forecasting problems of Bitcoin-realized volatility computed on data from the largest crypto … model and forecast Bitcoin volatility. The empirical results demonstrate that least squares model-averaging methods in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160813
-GARCH(1,1), CAViaR and historical simulation models in periods with contrasting volatility trends (increasing, constantly high … volatility trend. However, GARCH-st (1,1) and QML-GARCH(1,1) were found to be the most robust models in the different volatility … periods. The results show as well that the CAViaR model forecasts were less appropriate in the increasing volatility period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011967246
Nowadays, modeling and forecasting the volatility of stock markets have become central to the practice of risk … to forecast the volatility of the Moroccan stock-market index MADEX. We use daily returns covering the period between 01 …, as well as leading to a better understanding of the Moroccan stock-exchange volatility dynamics, especially with the lack …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023967
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011471021
bulk distribution components. This implies that the combination of a stochastic econometric model with extreme value theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012804913
Many financial decisions, such as portfolio allocation, risk management, option pricing and hedge strategies, are based on forecasts of the conditional variances, covariances and correlations of financial returns. The paper shows an empirical comparison of several methods to predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012025822