We compare sparse and dense representations of predictive models in macroeconomics, microeconomics, and finance. To deal with a large number of possible predictors, we specify a prior that allows for both variable selection and shrinkage. The posterior distribution does not typically concentrate...

Towards the end of 2009, the world economy was recovering from its deepest recession since the end of World War II. Most countries around the world took resort to fiscal policy in order to foster this recovery. In this paper, we first discuss the pros and cons of discretionary fiscal policy from...

Die staatlichen Aktivitäten haben vielfältige Konsequenzen auf die privaten Haushalte. Häufig bleiben die finanziellen Effekte staatlichen Handelns jedoch im Dunkeln. Für den Gebietsstand der Bundesrepublik Deutschland nach 1990 existiert kein empirisches Mikrosimulationsmodell, das die...