We compare sparse and dense representations of predictive models in macroeconomics, microeconomics, and finance. To deal with a large number of possible predictors, we specify a prior that allows for both variable selection and shrinkage. The posterior distribution does not typically concentrate...

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...

The financial and banking crises in USA in late 2007 led to a decline in economic activities in the industrialized countries, triggering a world-wide recession since then. The ongoing global economic downturn has brought into sharp focus the subject of macroeconomic interdependence of Pacific...