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The fact that human economic behaviour has a significant irrational element - one that is simultaneously hard-to-explain and highly predictable - has fascinated economists for decades from Fechner, 1860 to Shiller, 2005 and beyond. In this dissertation, I investigate the field from various...
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In the first chapter, I compare the forecasting accuracy of different high-frequency based volatility models. The … overnight returns considerably improves volatility forecasts for stocks across all models. Furthermore, the analysis shows that … models based on realized volatility benefit much less from allowing leverage effects than do models based on daily returns …
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